IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+17.9	#6
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.9	#53
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+11.7	#4

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.1	#21

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	8.6%	9.6%	3.8%
#1 Seed	29.8%	32.6%	15.3%
Top 2 Seed	50.1%	75.0%	52.2%
Top 4 Seed	71.2%	75.0%	52.2%
Top 6 Seed	82.3%	75.0%	52.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	93.2%	95.0%	84.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	92.0%	94.0%	82.7%
Average Seed	3.2	3.0	4.2

.500 or above	95.8%	97.3%	88.5%
.500 or above in Conference	90.9%	92.2%	84.2%
Conference Champion	26.0%	27.9%	16.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%

First Four	0.6%	0.5%	1.3%
First Round	93.1%	94.8%	84.2%
Second Round	80.5%	83.0%	68.0%
Sweet Sixteen	55.5%	58.2%	41.9%
Elite Eight	35.1%	37.6%	22.6%
Final Four	20.3%	21.9%	12.4%
Championship Game	11.8%	12.8%	6.6%
National Champion	6.3%	7.0%	3.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 83.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4.2 - 4.4	4.2 - 4.4
Quad 1b	3.6 - 1.5	7.7 - 5.9
Quad 2	6.0 - 1.3	13.7 - 7.3
Quad 3	5.5 - 0.5	19.2 - 7.7
Quad 4	4.0 - 0.1	23.2 - 7.8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	97	@ Wofford	W	84-71	83%
Nov 09, 2018	231	@ Elon	W	88-66	96%
Nov 12, 2018	108	Stanford	W	86-72	94%
Nov 16, 2018	287	Tennessee Tech	W	90-65	99%
Nov 19, 2018	160	St. Francis (PA)	W	89-71	97%
Nov 22, 2018	26	Texas	W	77-71	69%
Nov 23, 2018	50	UCLA	W	87-79	76%
Nov 28, 2018	19	@ Michigan	W	75-71	55%
Dec 05, 2018	197	UNC Wilmington	W	94-74	98%
Dec 15, 2018	5	Gonzaga	L	80-81	59%
Dec 22, 2018	3	Kentucky	L	80-81	48%
Dec 29, 2018	88	Davidson	W	81-69	91%
Jan 02, 2019	77	Harvard	W	79-68	89%
Jan 05, 2019	167	@ Pittsburgh	W	82-64	90%
Jan 08, 2019	38	@ North Carolina St.	W	88-81	64%
Jan 12, 2019	54	Louisville	W	84-75	84%
Jan 15, 2019	49	Notre Dame	W	79-71	83%
Jan 19, 2019	23	@ Miami (FL)	W	80-75	57%
Jan 21, 2019	20	Virginia Tech	W	84-79	73%
Jan 29, 2019	113	@ Georgia Tech	W	79-65	83%
Feb 02, 2019	54	@ Louisville	W	84-75	69%
Feb 05, 2019	38	North Carolina St.	W	88-81	81%
Feb 09, 2019	23	Miami (FL)	W	80-75	75%
Feb 11, 2019	2	Virginia	L	65-66	57%
Feb 16, 2019	115	@ Wake Forest	W	87-73	83%
Feb 20, 2019	4	@ Duke	L	82-83	39%
Feb 23, 2019	15	Florida St.	W	86-82	71%
Feb 26, 2019	12	Syracuse	W	73-70	69%
Mar 02, 2019	18	@ Clemson	W	77-73	55%
Mar 05, 2019	78	@ Boston College	W	86-75	75%
Mar 09, 2019	4	Duke	L	82-83	59%
Projected Record						23.2 - 7.8	12.7 - 5.3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.6	3.2	6.5	8.6	5.4	1.6		26.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.6	4.0	7.0	4.8	1.4	0.1			17.7	2nd
3rd												0.4	3.0	6.0	3.1	0.6	0.0				13.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	2.0	4.8	2.8	0.4	0.0					10.2	4th
5th										0.1	1.1	4.0	2.6	0.4							8.1	5th
6th									0.0	0.4	2.8	2.8	0.3	0.0							6.4	6th
7th								0.0	0.3	1.6	2.6	0.7	0.0								5.2	7th
8th								0.1	0.8	2.1	0.9	0.0									3.9	8th
9th							0.0	0.6	1.6	0.9	0.1										3.3	9th
10th						0.0	0.3	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0										2.3	10th
11th					0.0	0.1	0.7	0.8	0.1												1.7	11th
12th				0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0												1.1	12th
13th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0													0.5	13th
14th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1															0.2	14th
15th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0																0.1	15th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.4	2.7	3.6	5.3	7.7	10.0	11.4	13.8	13.7	11.9	10.1	5.4	1.6		Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.6		1.6
17-1	98.6%	5.4		4.9	0.5
16-2	85.7%	8.6		6.2	2.3	0.1
15-3	54.7%	6.5		3.3	2.7	0.6	0.0	0.0
14-4	23.4%	3.2		0.8	1.4	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	4.5%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.0
12-6	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	26.0%	26.0		16.9	7.1	1.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.6%		100.0%	38.3%	61.7%	1.1		1.5	0.1																	100.0%
17-1	5.4%		100.0%	34.0%	66.0%	1.1		4.8	0.6	0.0	0.0															100.0%
16-2	10.1%		100.0%	26.1%	73.9%	1.2		7.7	2.2	0.1	0.0															100.0%
15-3	11.9%		100.0%	24.1%	75.9%	1.5		7.2	3.8	0.7	0.2	0.0														100.0%
14-4	13.7%		100.0%	20.5%	79.5%	1.9		5.4	5.4	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0												100.0%
13-5	13.8%		100.0%	13.7%	86.3%	2.7		2.3	4.8	3.6	1.9	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0										100.0%
12-6	11.4%		99.9%	10.2%	89.7%	3.5		0.7	2.4	3.2	2.8	1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.9%
11-7	10.0%		99.1%	8.7%	90.4%	4.7		0.1	0.8	1.7	2.4	2.1	1.4	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.1		99.0%
10-8	7.7%		96.9%	5.3%	91.6%	6.0		0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.6	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.0			0.2		96.8%
9-9	5.3%		87.3%	5.8%	81.5%	7.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0				0.7		86.5%
8-10	3.6%		60.7%	5.0%	55.7%	8.3					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		1.4		58.6%
7-11	2.7%		33.6%	3.3%	30.3%	9.1						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.0	0.0	1.8		31.3%
6-12	1.4%		15.4%	2.1%	13.3%	9.1							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		1.2		13.6%
5-13	0.8%		4.1%	2.2%	1.9%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7		2.0%
4-14	0.4%		7.6%	7.6%		14.0													0.0		0.0		0.0	0.3
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		93.2%	15.8%	77.5%	3.2		29.8	20.3	12.0	9.2	6.4	4.6	3.8	3.0	2.1	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.8		92.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.6%	100.0%	1.1	92.3	7.7